Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts

Saturday, 6 September 2014

Not in the News - 6th of September Edition

Welcome to another edition of our weekly series looking back at the stories which the main stream media in Scotland didn't offer much attention to, and comparing them to those that hit the front pages. Our last edition can be found here.
  
Do you hate your children? You must be a Yes voter!
The No campaign, which had previously claimed that "the key factor (in determining how to vote) is the love of our families", made what is quite possibily the most ridiculous campaign poster since Mayor Quimby's disasterous "he'd vote for you" promise. "We love our kids. We're voting no thanks" (the obvious conclusion being that everyone voting Yes does hate their kids, even the ones who don't have kids!).
 
 
#Hamatime, #PatronisingBTLady and now #ilovemyfamily. The No campaign has been nothing but entertaining (really, they have been nothing!). We can confirm that this trend will continue, as we have seen a preview of their next poster campaign:
 
 
Taking it to the Max
Max Keiser, star of the internationally renowed Keiser Report and On the Edge, has previously stated his support for Scottish Independence. He confirmed that again with his website adding the following post: "YES! An independent Scotland would have the highest GDP per capita in the world. A 'No' vote is asinine".
 
 
No wonder he and his partner Stacy Herbert are considered the most dangerous people to the establishment in the financial media. Well done Max and keep up the great work you do!
 
Checking your purse before they check your pulse
The UK Government confirmed that the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (also known as TTIP) will affect the NHS. The details can be found in these articles by Unite the union and International Business Times.

  
Independent EU nations have the right to safeguard their health services if there is an existing state monopoly (i.e. if privatisation is not already taking place). Scotland can only have this protection if we vote Yes on the 18th.
  
The Pot and the Singing Kettle
Yes supporters in Scotland were buoyed by the latest figures from polling agency YouGov. Whether or not you believe the initial figures isn't very important (or even the notion of polling altogether) the evidence that the movement is towards independence is very encouraging.

  
And we know this is important because the BBC (that bastian of impartiality [sarcasm]) considered the massive jump in support for Yes as being less news worthy than the music group the singing kettle announcing that they will stop touring in 2015. Maybe they could have squeezed them both in by dropping the 'New Paranormal Festival for Scotland' story...nah [sarcasm, extreme sarcasm].
 
The reason why this is important is because belief regarding how most other people will be voting is a consideration made by a very large proportion of the electorate at every election. If our fellow Scots believe that Yes can win, then this will translate into more votes. It shouldn't be this way (and with independence we will gain a representative parliament where every vote carries the same value - unlike Westminster) but it is a reality we should recognise.
 
Heartless Vandals!
Evidence has emerge of terrible acts of vandalism against 'no' campaign signs! First Minister Alex Salmond has had to deny personal involvement! Additional statement which hints at, but doesn't make a specific allegation which would need to be justified or could be subject to scrutiny, the Yes campaign being evil and bad!

 
Have these cows fully appreciated the choice facing Scotland?
 
Scotland has value (something the 'no' campaign doesn't appreciate)
We wrote a while ago in our blog 'Nobody wants you so please stay with us' how the primary tactic of those opposed to independence is to portray Scotland as a land which has no intrinsic value. Westminster wouldn't want to treat us as equals because we have no value. The EU won't try to keep us in the club because we have no value. And then NATO would expel us because we have no value. Just follow the links to see why each of these arguments are nonsense.

 
In each case we have shown that this just isn't true, and today we had more evidence of this as a former UK ambassador to NATO, Mariot Leslie, stated her intention to vote Yes and her confidence in Scotland being warmly welcomed within the military alliance.
 
And on a little side story which Russia Today mentioned: a country can be a member of the EU and use the currency of another. Luxembourg, which was a founding member of the EU, continued to use Belgian Francs until 2002. Of course, to the 'no' campaign, Luxembourg has value but Scotland does not. There are only obstacles and problems facing us and no-one will do anything to make things easy or fair.
 
I'm not ready for my closeup, Mr Ponsonby
David Cameron spent Prime Minister's Questions accusing STV of chickening out of hosting a debate between himself and undecided viewers. His exact words were: "On the television programme, I offered them [STV] a date and indeed a format but they seemed to run away themselves which is a great pity."
 
No questions from a journalist
No representatives from the Yes Campaign (which STV would have agreed to)
And only 'genuine' floating voters, which Downing Street would arrange (ie, Dave's team would pick the audience)
 
  
Despite attempts to put pressure on the channel by claiming that this 'debate' would take place on Sky News or the BBC (Mr Cameron has so far taken part in nothing), STV refused to surrender editorial control.
 
The offer for Mr Cameron to speak to undecided voters on STV is still available, but we suspect he won't be ready for 'genuine' scrutiny any time soon...
 
Every little hinders
The no campaign used a frankly bizarre claim in their literature recently that the cost of food in supermarkets would increase following a Yes vote. This doesn't make sense for a number of reasons (most of which are explained here and here) but the interesting part is the use of Tesco. The image below was taken from a no campaign leaflet and clearly shows that the supermarket will increase every price by 16%.
 
"I can confirm that this [16% higher prices] is not true as we've got a great business in Scotland and our job is to create the best offer for customers whatever the outcome of the referendum." Sue Whitaker, Tesco Customer Service
The problem for the no campaign was that someone asked Tesco, and they confirmed that this story was a lie. So, the no campaign have been caught making up nonsense (again) and hiding their scares behind someone else. I guess in their world, every little hinders.
  
This fake story, which has been introduced whilst votes are being cast, is clearly against election rules. But fear not! Below is a photograph which shows all the work we have seen that the Electoral Commission, who describe their own objective as achieving "well-run elections", is doing to ensure a free and fair contest:
  
  
Strategically positioned paperwork jobs
This map below, which was shared by the Wings over Scotland's twitter account, shows where civilian jobs for the UK military are based.

 
Civilian jobs within the military are very important but they can by and large be located anywhere. Why do these jobs (and remember that a population share of their associated costs are attributed to Scotland despite the obvious shortfall in jobs being based here) have to be concentrated in the south of England? Does this map look fair to you?
 
It reminds me of this article by Business for Scotland. The maps there don't look very fair either.
  
Eh...mass canvas?
We at Sign for Scotland do not share links to the Scotsman newspaper (see our blog 'I read it in the paper' for the main reason why), but even they were highlighting how hopelessly unsuccessful Johann Lamont's mass canvassing attempt in Govan was on Friday.


"But despite an army of Labour supporters knocking doors, only three residents engaged in conversation with her - while several even came outside to return the leaflets pushed through their letter boxes." Scotsman Newspaper
Ouch! The reason why senior Labour politicians are finding such a hard response from people in Govan and other predominately working class areas is because they are campaigning to keep a Tory government in Westminster in power over Scotland. The argument that we should 'vote no and then hope people in England vote Labour next year, (just ignore our commitment to matching every Tory public service spending cut)' is not as strong or as reliable as 'vote Yes and the people will always get the government they vote for'.
 
We can even save a fortune by not paying for what we don't need!
 
But if you are an undecided Labour voter, then please compare any speech by Johann Lamont to the words of Jeane Freeman and decide which one more accurately reflects the founding principles of the Labour Party. What future would you rather have?
  
Join us again on Sunday for our final look at what's 'not in the news' before the referendum!
Drew
 
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Thursday, 28 August 2014

Vote no, get nothing

This blog is about reasons for voting ‘Yes’ during the referendum for Scottish Independence. We largely focus on economic, social and political reasons why we, the people of Scotland, would be better off having the decisions affecting our lives being made within our borders by politicians who are answerable to us. We try to use logic and facts to back up our arguments and avoid personal attacks (wherever possible).


But it’s important to acknowledge the future that awaits us if we vote no. No offers no economic stability; just as the ‘Yes’ campaign cannot guarantee that an independent Scotland will become richer despite a mountain of evidence which suggests that it would, the ‘no’ campaign cannot promise to stop the UK’s economic slide and stagnation.
 
The ‘no’ campaign cannot tell us what tax rates we will have, for even if everyone in Scotland were to agree on an approach we would be unable to enforce such a policy within the UK due to our minority status. The ‘no’ campaign cannot tell us what currency we will use, for the decision is a reserved matter at Westminster. There is nothing to stop David Cameron from taking us into the Euro or adopting the US Dollar. He doesn’t need our permission, the way an independent Scottish Parliament would, as all he would need is to have a majority of MPs to back his idea, and he can easily gain them in England alone (and even if he were forced into a referendum, a 55% - 45% vote in Scotland would only affect the overall outcome by less than 1%, reducing us to spectators).

"We'll make all the important decisions for you," Westminster's 'offer'
The Conservatives will not transfer new powers to a Scottish Parliament which they are unlikely to control. This means that whenever we get a Tory Government ruling us, the transfer of power can only move south. Most people agree on this point. What about the only alternative to the Conservatives at Westminster, the Labour Party?

Ed Miliband, the leader of the Labour Party, has repeatedly called for ‘One Nation’.
“I’ve set out a vision of what this country can be, one nation…from business to education to welfare.” (New Year speech, December 2012)
A ‘one nation’ approach to business means that the power to vary the rate and thresholds for corporation tax cannot be held in Scotland (which Mr Miliband has relegated to a region). A ‘one nation’ approach to education, means that the tuition fees which students resident in Scotland can currently avoid will be imposed, with a £9,000 per year charge becoming the norm. A ‘one nation’ approach to welfare means that the prevailing attitudes in Westminster towards those receiving benefits will be adopted, regardless of whether those values match those of the Scottish People. ‘One nation’ doesn’t leave much room for the transfer of powers towards Scotland.


The Scottish Parliament will no longer be for a nation within a nation, regardless of which half of Westminster wins. If we want a meaningful say in our future and for our parliament to hold onto the powers that it has, then we need to support independence. The two Westminster parties are like railroad tracks running parallel to one another. Their direction is clear; reduce the authority of the Scottish Parliament until it is unable to do anything and hoard all power in the southeast.
Only ‘Yes’ can maintain what we have.  If you vote no, you'll get nothing.
Drew
 
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Sunday, 24 August 2014

Not in the News -24th of August Edition

Welcome to another edition of our weekly series looking back at the stories which the main stream media in Scotland didn't offer much attention to, and comparing them to those that hit the front pages. Our last edition can be found here.

 
Bankers' Loyalty
A prime example of why it is better to build an economy on real goods and commodities was revealed this week as a number of US Banks threatened to re-locate from the City of London to locations within the EU.

  
With it appearing increasingly likely that Westminster will leave the EU (and have to negotiate a free-trade agreement that will not have favourable terms for Scotland), the American Banks are making contingencies to move operations to Dublin and/or Frankfurt. With independence, Scotland could also enjoy some benefit from the Bankers' flight from London, but re-industrialising our country will be the priority.

And of course, there are others who are looking to re-locate to Scotland.
 
Two wrongs make a far right!
You can read the story of Yvonne Hama, who appeared on the front page of the official no campaign website, here. It so shocking that even the BBC had to report it!
 
But none of that stopped Ms Hama from starring in the no campaign TV broadcast a day later. It's #hamatime!


Go Westminster! (Seriously, just go away and stop interfering)
Everyone in Scotland who is reading this article will be pleased to know that the tax they pay is contributing to the 'no' campaign! HM Government has been paying for better together adverts on various websites in an attempt to prevent a Yes vote in September's referendum.
 
This story appeared on aworkingclassman.com, whose evidence comes from Google Adwords used on their site. It was confirmed that this process has continued into the final 28 days of the referendum, which is in direct contravention of the Edinburgh Agreement. The real question is whether or not the Electoral Commission will record this expenditure as part of the no campaign budget and act on this breach of election rules. We don't have high expectations.
 
Vote Yes and we'll punish you (vote no and we'll really punish you!)
Westminster's idle threats against Scottish Independence have been around since the start of the referendum campaign, but their very geniune signals of intent following a 'no' vote have become much clearer during the past week. The Times, the Herald, the Telegraph, the Scotsman and even the BBC are highlighting the coming cuts (although they use the estimate of £4 billion per year rather than the more likely £7 billion figure).

And these extra cuts are likely to come about despite up to 1,000,000 being unable to afford adequate housing with 100,000 of them being deemed too poor for even minimum standards. Instead of looking at money that is being wasted, it is those who have the least that will bare the brunt of future London budgets.
 
Vote Yes and Westminster will have to cut off its own leg to scratch us, vote no, and we'll be left defenceless to resist their austerity programme (as well as the demand for a pound of flesh from voters in England).
  
The missing 8 billion barrels of oil - Let's 'Frack' this case!
If you have any interaction with the Main Stream Media in Scotland, then you will have come across the name Ian Wood. This week, he claimed that there is just 15,000,000,000 to 16,500,000,000 barrels of oil left in the North Sea, which is much lower than the amount in Scottish Government's White Paper on Independence (24,000,000,000 barrels). The fact that this was significantly higher than the OBR's estimate of 10,000,000,000 barrels wasn't as widely reported.

So what do other experts in the field believe? Well the UK Government's own Department of Energy and Climate Change put the oil reserves at 35,000,000,000 barrels, and N-56, a think tank with members that operate in the North Sea, has estimates closer to 60,000,000,000. You can also read the reply to Mr Wood by economist and former advisor to Labour and Conservative Secretaries of State for Scotland Donald MacKay here.
 
Finally, and perhaps most significantly, in February of this year Ian Wood wrote a report saying that he believed there to be around 24,000,000,000 barrels left in the North Sea (yes, the same Ian Wood who, with no new information being presented to him, now believes that 8 billion barrels worth of oil has magically disappeared). He also advised young people to get involved in the North Sea industry as it can offer them 'a job for life'. Let's hope that none of them were silly enough to listen to him!

 
While nothing has changed with regards to the amount of extractable oil, a new feature is UK Government contracts for fracking becoming available. Mr Wood's company, the imaginatively titled 'Wood Group', is heavily involved in fracking, and Westminster will be handing out lucrative licences in various locations across Scotland and the UK. If the Wood Group were to receive enough of these, then Mr Wood's grandchildren would certainly be thankful for a no vote!
 
 
But the central question remains: do you believe the Scottish Government's position that we will have a massive windfall for numerous decades to come, a position based on record levels of investment by numerous oil companies as well as the evidence presented above, or Westminster's predictions that it will all be gone the moment we become independent. Here's a final bit of evidence to consider before you decide.
 
Things I don't know because I trust the BBC...#YesBecause!
The whole #YesBecause trend of twitter seemed to pass the BBC by this week. There were some fantastic messages of hope and optimism (as well as a few cheeky replies!) which helped to highlight the causes that we are campaigning for. It was fantastic that #YesBecause was seen around the world and it came just 1 day before Yes Scotland announced that 1 million voters in Scotland had signed the Yes Declaration.

Of course, there were a few #nobecause messages:
 
 
Remember to check our next 'not in the news' to find out what else I wouldn't know about if I trusted the BBC!
 
Silence in Unison
"SNP under fire for 'scandalous deceit' on future of NHS" was the headline in the Daily Express this week as the Yes Scotland campaign highlighted the threats to our health service. So it was no surprise that the controlled media in Scotland offered very little coverage to the warnings of NHS privatisation made by trade union group UNISON.
 
 
As you should know by now, if you want the facts, you need to look online. Our favourite article on this topic comes from Wings over Scotland with "More lying nationalists".
  
Join us again on Sunday for our next look at what's 'not in the news'!
Drew
 
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Friday, 22 August 2014

Plans A, B, C, D and E (I know you don't care about currency but it's the only thing the Westminster Defence League talk about)

We at Sign for Scotland were recently asked about the best way to respond to people who bring up the topic of currency. So here is our handly little guide. Just remember that the best references  to this subject can be found in the 'Wee Blue Book' (starting on page 11) and on the Business for Scotland website (especially the article 'Euro, Pound Sterling or Scottish Pound'). The different options available to us are also listed on the Scottish Government's White Paper on Independence (starting page 109).
 
If the show 'Spice and Wolf' can use a wolf deity to explain economics then so can we!

Currency Union
The term ‘Currency Union’ can be a bit mis-leading. It has nothing to do with using the £ itself (as options 2 and 3 below will prove), it only means that the Bank of England will continue to act as ‘lender of second last resort’ (see reference [1] and [2]). The main feature of this approach is that things remain the same for people on both sides of the border. There will be no transaction costs and banks operating in Scotland have a local lender with the ability to shore up their finances. This option gives the Scottish Parliament no direct control over the supply of money, although we have the flexibility to set our own tax types and rates [3] [4].
  
This approach was successfully used by Luxembourg and Belgium for over 7 decades [5] and could be replaced with any of the other options listed at a future date. Below is a video in BSL explaining why Westminster will want a currency union, and why they are pretending to be against it during the referendum campaign.

 
Sterlingisation
Sterlingisation means using a currency without having a central bank. This is the same as ‘Dollarisation’ and is a popular choice around the world [6]. In our case, Sterlingisation results in us using the £ as normal, as well as reduced debt payments to Westminster. This is because the Bank of England holds a number of assets that would be withheld from us [7], and thus we would not be liable for any debt that was accrued to secure those assets.
  
Sterlingisation would not affect the guarantee on savers, which means savers with up to €100,000 in their accounts will continue to be protected [8]. Banks operating in Scotland would not be guaranteed bailouts should they fail, which will force them to act more responsibly [9]. This can be achieved without agreement with Westminster and be replaced with any of the other options listed at a future date.

Scottish Currency pegged to the Pound
The third option is for Scotland to have its own currency that will have the same value as the £. Bank of England notes would continue to be accepted in Scotland, and the Scottish Parliament could, at a future date, decide to remove the peg (see option 4) giving much more freedom of choice to future generations.
 
A Scottish Central Bank would be formed (or an existing bank in Scotland could be changed into a central bank) which would adopt the same functions that the Bank of England currently has. The strength of this central bank would depend upon the post-referendum negotiations: if our share of the Bank of England’s assets were transferred, then the corresponding levels of UK debt would be transferred too. If no assets were transferred, then Scotland would have vastly reduced debt payments. This is the option that Switzerland successfully uses today [10]. Any transaction costs would be small as a Scottish Pound and a Bank of England Pound would have equal value.

The new no campaign poster
Scottish Currency that floats freely
This approach would see Scotland have its own Central Bank and currency. There would be transaction costs when trading with the UK if we picked this choice similar to those we have when trading with the rest of the world. The advantage of this option is that full control over the supply of money would be held by the Scottish Parliament. The result of this option would be that Scottish bank notes would have a higher value than those produced by the Bank of England [11], which means that anyone holding Scottish currency (i.e everyone in Scotland) would become wealthier, as our money could purchase more goods from abroad than before. The downside is that our exports would become more expensive to others and tourists would view Scotland as a more pricey place to visit.

We're pretty sure Holo is not refering to this story here
Euro
Scotland cannot officially use the Euro due to ERM2 [12]. ERM2 demands that any country that wants to join the Eurozone has to be using a currency that is ‘pegged’ to the Euro for at least 2 years. Scotland can only meet this qualification if we adopt option 4 for at least 2 years (which isn’t physically possible as our independence day will be the 24th of March 2016 [13]). Scotland could unofficially use the Euro in the same way as we could use the £ in option 2 however there are few immediate advantages with this approach.
 
  
After Independence there will be even more options to pick from however those will be discussed and debated at elections. We, the people who live in Scotland, will get to decide what we want. That's the spirit of democracy and something that Westminster doesn't offer. And it's one of the best reasons to vote Yes.
Drew
 
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List of references:
[1] Crisis, Conditions, and Capital – The Effect of International Monetary Fund Agreements on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows [Nathan M Jensen, Department of Political Science, Washington University, St. Louis] - http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/48/2/194
[2] U.S. planned British economic bailout in the 1970s, newly released documents reveal…with haunting echoes today [Dan Atkinson, Mail on Sunday Economics Editor] - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1266871/A-warning-British-economy-haunting-echoes--34-years-on.html
[3] The race that’s never run [Reverend Stuart Campbell, Wings over Scotland] - http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-race-thats-never-run/
[4] Tax rates online [KPMG, international audit, tax & advisory company] - http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/services/Tax/tax-tools-and-resources/Pages/tax-rates-online.aspx
[5] Belgium-Luxembourg Economic Union [Encyclopaedia Britannica] - http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/59408/Belgium-Luxembourg-Economic-Union
[6] Dollarization [How Money Works, William F Hummel] - http://wfhummel.cnchost.com/dollarization.html
[8] Deposit Guarantee Schemes [The EU Single Market, EC Europa] - http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/bank/guarantee/index_en.htm
[9] An independent Scotland should use the pound without permission from rUK, says new ASI report [Adam Smith Institute] - http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/money-banking/an-independent-scotland-should-use-the-pound-without-permission-from-ruk/
[10] Swiss National Bank pegs franc to euro [The Week, Business magazine] - http://www.theweek.co.uk/business/2433/swiss-national-bank-pegs-franc-euro
[11] Scottish independence gets boost from Hong Kong’s money markets [South China Morning Post] - http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1224903/scottish-independence-gets-boost-hong-kongs-money-markets
[12] Euro, Pound Sterling or Scottish Pound? [Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, Business for Scotland] - http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/euro-pound-or-scottish-pound/
[13] How will Scotland become independent? [Yes Scotland] - http://www.yesscotland.net/answers/how-will-scotland-become-independent